Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions ...

2020-6-27 · Uncertainty when characterizing fundamental niche based on realized niche. A. Map of simulation study area, distribution of suitable habitat for a simulated species (black), its accessible area ( M ; light gray), and a plot showing ranges of mean annual temperature present in each of these areas.

A preliminary stochastic analysis of the uncertainty of ...

The ever-increasing energy demand has led to overexploitation of fossil fuels deposits, while renewables offer a viable alternative. Since renewable energy resources derive from phenomena related to either atmospheric or geophysical processes, unpredictability is inherent to renewable energy systems.

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

2017-1-16 · Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass Jamie Speirsa, Christophe McGladeb, Raphael Sladea,n a Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT), Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 1NA, UK b University College London (UCL) Energy Institute, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London …

Energy Transition, Uncertainty, and the Opportunities for ...

2021-8-1 · available in the public domain about discount rates on completed projects. The survey shows that uncertainties associated with energy transition have already started to alter the risk preferences of investors in fossil fuel projects. Investors are demanding a much higher hurdle rate in order to invest in long cycle oil and coal projects.

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

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Transboundary River Governance in the Face of …

2019-4-15 · Natural Resources and Environment Symposium ("the Symposium") focused on the issue of transboundary water governance in the face of uncertainty.6 The Symposium used the natural laboratory of the Columbia Basin, shared by the United States and Canada, as …

Analysing the uncertainty of estimating forest carbon ...

2017-7-18 · the uncertainty of estimating carbon stocks. The data fusion had the lowest uncertainty by using an existing method for high-accuracy surface modelling to fuse the ground sample plots with the satellite observations (HASM-S). The esti-mates produced with HASM-S were 26.1 and 28.4% more accurate than the satellite-based approach and spatial in-

Uncertainty in energy planning: Estimating the health ...

2015-3-1 · The development of tools such as reduced-form screening models is helpful in filling this void. The extent to which energy planners should make use of reduce-form tools largely depends on the purpose of the analysis, the questions being asked, the resources available, and the tolerance for uncertainty. Reduced-form approaches increase uncertainty.

Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy ...

2021-8-13 · uncertainty of future energy systems.4 For instance, the availability and affordability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies would make the use of coal possible in a low-carbon world, while improving energy security for coal-producing countries. Without being sure of succeeding in developing low-carbon

(PDF) Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass.pdf Available via license: CC BY 4.0 Content may be subject to copyright.

Uncertainty and Complexity: Biomass Can Help on the …

2017-2-24 · Uncertainty and Complexity: Biomass Can Help on the Path to Deep Decarbonization. Wood and other forms of solid biomass were, for millennia of human history, the dominant fuels for cooking, heating, and lighting. More recently, the …

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass . ... AbstractEnergy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. ... This paper explores how the ...

Explain why fossil fuels are exhaustible natural resources ...

Fossil fuels are formed from the dead remains of living organisms. The formation of fossil fuels is a very slow process, it takes millions of years. Hence, the amount of resources available for use is limited and is being exhausted by human activities like industrialization, rapid growth, etc. Thus, fossil fuels are exhaustible natural resources.

(PDF) Uncertainty analysis of the environmental ...

Uncertainty analysis of the environmental sustainability of biofuels. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 2015. Stephan Pfister. Download PDF. Download Full PDF Package. This paper. A short summary of this paper. 16 Full PDFs related to this paper. Read Paper.

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

Downloadable (with restrictions)! Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated.

Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world | Nature

2021-9-8 · A global energy system model finds that planned fossil fuel extraction is inconsistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, because the majority of fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground.

Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty …

2016-6-14 · Uncertainties concerning fossil fuel resource availability have traditionally been deemphasized in climate change research as global baseline emission scenarios (i.e., scenarios that do not consider additional climate policies) have been built on the assumption of abundant fossil fuel resources …

Exploring uncertainty in the calibration of the molecular ...

2011-8-24 · Abstract. Calibration is a critical step in every molecular clock analysis but it has been the least considered. Bayesian approaches to divergence time estimation make it possible to incorporate the uncertainty in the degree to which fossil evidence …

The gas gap: Uncertainty in the supply of natural gas ...

1993-1-1 · The U.S. Department of Energy''s Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

2016-9-14 · Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass: Authors: Speirs, J McGlade, C Slade, R: Item Type: Journal Article: Abstract: Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates.

Scientists Say: Uncertainty | Science News for Students

2018-4-16 · It can happen naturally or in response to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests. confidence interval An estimated range of values — derived from a set of data — that are likely to contain the real value. This range is used to understand the amount of uncertainty …

Carbon Monitor, a near-real time daily dataset of global ...

2020-6-15 · Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China ... Given the fact that uncertainty of fossil CO 2 emissions production is in general < ±10%10,19,20, ... possible by the availability of recent activity data such as hourly electrical power generation,

Uncertainty in the Age of Fossils and the Stratigraphic ...

2006-6-1 · The fossil terminal taxa have the uncertainty intervals of their FADs plotted with a dashed line, none of which overlap in time. Three MSM* and GER values are shown, obtained considering the youngest age (MSM* y, GER y ), the oldest age (MSM* o, GER o ), and the midpoint age (MSM* m, GER m ) of each uncertainty interval of the FADs.

Climate Change and the Exhaustion of Fossil Energy and ...

2010-12-4 · decades (IPCC, 2007). These emission scenarios rely on assessment of the world''s fossil energy resources, that assume very large amounts of reserves to exist, be quite easily exploitable and become available in the future (IPCC, 2000). However, recent assessments of the Earth''s fossil energy resources show that fossil fuel

FOSSIL FUELS IN THE FUTURE (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV

@article{osti_4123776, title = {FOSSIL FUELS IN THE FUTURE}, author = {Searl, M F}, abstractNote = {A review of fossil-fuel resources is presented along with a forecast of the rate at which they wiil be depleted in the absence of new energy sources. Energy projections are included for the United States, other areas, and the world as a whole for the remainder of this century.

Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on …

2015-12-1 · The lesson for policy makers is that caution is needed, particularly when debating global figures for resource availability, such as those produced by the IEA. 4. Fossil fuel resources – sources of uncertainty. Knowledge of the uncertainties affecting fossil fuel resource estimates usually depends on the production history of the resource.

Long-term energy planning under uncertainty

2019-1-24 · Long-term energy planning (over 20-50 years) is mostly based on forecasts (e.g. of fuel prices, energy demand, etc.). As these forecasts often prove to be inaccurate, it is crucial to consider uncertainty in energy planning models to ensure making resilient and robust investment decisions. However, this is seldom done in the practice.

Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in ...

2021-2-26 · Natural variability makes future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea uncertain, but nutrient load reductions can reduce its severity, shows a large range of future scenarios downscaled from ...

Availability of Natural Resources ( Read ) | Earth Science ...

The availability of a resource depends on how much of it there is and how hard it is to extract, refine, and transport to where it is needed. Politics plays an important role in resource availability since an unfavorable political situation can make a resource unavailable to a nation.

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources ...

Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass . ... This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. ... Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the ...